Question 1

Frank Hoskins and Paul Lanning are economists for a large U .S . investment advisory firm. Platinum Advisors. Hoskins and Lanning use their independent research on U .S . stocks and international stocks to provide advice for the firm's network of advisors. As the senior economist at Platinum, Hoskins is a partner in the firm and is Lanning's supervisor. Lanning has worked for Platinum for the past four years. At a lunch meeting, the two economists discuss the usefulness of economic theory, economic data, and the resulting forecasts of the global economic and stock market activity.
Hoskins is investigating the growth prospects of the country of Maldavia. Maldavia is a formerly communist country with a population of 3 million located in Eastern Europe. The Maldavian government had been aggressive in instituting political reform and encouraging the growth of financial markets. However, due to a recent insider trading scandal and resulting stock market volatility, the Maldavian government is considering restrictions on further stock market growth and the establishment of a national securities regulator. Hoskins states that these developments are not encouraging for future economic growth.
Lanning is examining the country of Petra. Petra is a country of 25 million located in South America and rich with natural resources including oil. The recently elected president of Petra, Carlos Basile, has announced that he would like to diversify the country's economy away from natural resources while nationalizing the oil industry. Lanning states that these changes would not be beneficial for the future growth of the Petrian economy.
One of the many items they study when examining an economy or stock market is the economic information released by governments and private organizations. Hoskins and Lanning use this information to determine the effects on economic growth and the appropriate portfolio allocations to the bond and stock markets. Examining information for Maldavia, Hoskins has learned that the Maldavian private sector has embarked on an ambitious plan to increase labor productivity by purchasing more machinery for its factories. The private sector feels compelled to do this because Maldavia has historically relied too heavily on labor as the main input into production. Plotting the productivity curve for Maldavia, Hoskins states that labor productivity should increase because the productivity curve will shift upward and to the right.

Lanning is examining the historical record of economic growth in Petra. He has gathered the data in Exhibit 1 to determine potential economic growth.

Hoskins is also examining data for the country of Semeria. Semeria is an emerging country that has benefited from recent changes in the political environment as well as technological advances. Its economy is growing rapidly, and changes in the Semerian economy and society have resulted in more opportunities for women. The Semerian economy has experienced 17 consecutive quarters of positive growth in GDP, which is unprecedented in Semerian history. Interest rates have increased over time because businesses have been borrowing heavily to invest in new machinery and technologies. Most economists are forecasting further increases in interest rates in Semeria.
It has long been Platinum's policy that its economists use long-term economic growth trends to forecast future economic growth, stock returns, and dividends in a country. Lanning is examining the economy of Tiberia. Tiberia has a population of 11 million and is located in northern Africa. Its economy is diversified, and its main exports are agricultural products and heavy machinery. The country's economy has been growing at an annual rate of 6.2% for the past ten years, in part because of technological advances in the manufacture of heavy equipment. These advances involve the use of computer-operated welding machines that have made the manufacture of heavy equipment less expensive. Lanning is worried, however, that the 6.2% GDP growth rate may not be sustainable and is considering advising Platinum's portfolio managers to decrease their portfolio allocations in the country. Before doing so, he will consult with Hoskins.
Are the statements made by Hoskins and Lanning regarding the future growth of the Maldavian and Petrian economies likely to be correct or incorrect?

Options :

A : Both are correct.

B : Only Hoskins is correct.

C : Only Lanning is correct

Answer: A

Question 2

Yi Tang updates several economic parameters monthly for use by the analysts and the portfolio managers at her firm. If economic conditions warrant, she will update the parameters even more frequently. As a result of an economic slowdown, she is going through this process now.
The firm has been using an equity risk premium of 5.6%, found with historical estimates. Tang is going to use an estimate of the equity risk premium found with a macroeconomic model. By comparing the yields on nominal bonds and real bonds, she estimates the inflation rate to be 2.6%. She expects real domestic growth to be 3.0%. Tang does not expect a change in price/earnings ratios. The yield on the market index is 1.7% and the expected risk-free rate of return is 2.7%.
Elizabeth Trotter, one of the firm's portfolio Managers, asks Tang about the effects of survivorship bias on estimates of the equity risk premium. Trotter asks, 'Which method is most susceptible to this bias, historical estimates, Gordon growth model estimates, or survey estimates?'
Tang wishes to estimate the required rate of return for Northeast Electric (NE) using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Fama-French three factor model. She is using the following information to accomplish this:
* The risk-free rate of return is 2.7%.

* The expected risk premiums arc:

* The beta coefficient in the CAPM is estimated to be 0.63.
* The betas (factor sensitivities) for the three Fama-French factors are 1.00 for the market factor, -0.76 for the size factor, and -0.04 for the book-to-markct factor.
Trotter also asks Tang about adjusted betas. She says, 'We use a formula for the adjusted beta where the adjusted beta = (2/3) (regression beta) + (1/3) (1.0). How do the adjusted betas compare to the original regression betas?'
Trotter has one final question for Tang. Trotter says, 'We need to estimate the equity beta for VixPRO, which is a private company that is not publicly traded. We have identified a publicly traded company that has similar operating characteristics to VixPRO and we have estimated the beta for that company using regression analysis. We used the return on the public company as the dependent variable and the return on the market index as the independent variable. What steps do I need to take to find the beta for VixPRO equity? The companies have different debt/equity ratios. The debt of both companies is very low risk, and I believe I can ignore taxes.'
The best response to Trotter's question about survivorship bias is:

Options :

A : historical estimates.

B : Gordon model estimates.

C : survey estimates.

Answer: A

Question 3

Ivan Johnson is reviewing the investment merits of BioTLab, a fast-growing biotechnology company. BioTLab has developed several drugs, which arc being licensed to major drug companies. BioTLab also has several drugs in phase III trials (phase III trials are the last testing stage before FDA approval). Johnson notes that two drugs recently received approval which should provide BioTLab solid revenue growth and generate predictable cash flow well into the future. Based on the potential for the two drugs, BioTLab's estimated annual cash flow growth rate for the next two years is 25%, and long-term growth is expected to be 12%. Because of BioTLab's attractive investment opportunities, the company does not pay a dividend. BioTLab's current weighted average cost of capital is 15% and its stock is currently trading at $50 per share. Financial information for BioTLab for the most recent 12 months is provided below:
* Net working capita! excluding cash increased from $7,460,000 to $9,985,000;
* Book value increased from $81,250,000 to $101,250,000.
* BioTLab currently has no debt.
* Research facilities and production equipment were purchased for $8,450,000.
* BioTLab held non-operating assets in the amount of $875,000.
* Net income for the 12 months was $20,000,000.
* BioTLab has a marginal tax rate of 40%.
* Noncash charges for depreciation and restructuring for the 12 months were $1,250,000.
BioTLab's management has indicated an interest in establishing a dividend and will fund new drug research by issuing additional debt.
Johnson also reviews a competitor to BioTLab, Groh Group, which has a larger segment operating in a highly cyclical business. The Groh Group has a debt to equity ratio of 1.0 and pays no dividends. In addition, Groh Group plans to issue bonds in the coming year.
Which model would be most appropriate in valuing the Groh Group?

Options :

A : FCFF model.

B : FCFE model.

C : Dividend Discount model.

Answer: A

Question 4

Arnaud Aims is assisting with the analysis of several firms in the retail department store industry. Because one of the industry members, Flavia Stores, has negative earnings for the current year, Aims wishes to normalize earnings to establish more meaningful P/E ratios. For the current year (2008) and six previous years, selected financial data are given below. All data are in euros.

Aims wishes to estimate normalized EPS for 2008 using two different methods, the method of historical average EPS and the method of average rate of return on equity. He will leave 2008 EPS and ROI out of his estimates. Based on his normalized EPS estimates, he will compute a trailing P/E for 2008. The stock price for Flavia Stores is 26.50.
Aims is also looking at price-to-book ratios as an alternative to price-to-earnings ratios. Three of the advantages of P/B ratios that Aims recalls are:
Advantage 1: Because book value is a cumulative balance sheet account encompassing several years, book value is more likely to be positive than EPS.
Advantage 2: For many companies, especially service companies, human capital is more important than physical capital as an operating asset.
Advantage 3: Book value represents the historical purchase cost of assets, as well as accumulated accounting depreciation expenses. Inflation and technological changes can drive a wedge between the book value and market value of assets.
Aims used a constant growth DDM to establish a justified P/E ratio based on forecasted fundamentals. One of his associates asked Aims if he could easily establish a justified price-to-sales (P/B) ratio and price-to-book (P/B) ratio from his justified P/E ratio. Aims replied, 'I could do this fairly easily)
If I multiply the P/E ratio times the net profit margin, the ratio of net income to sales, the result will be the P/S ratio. If I multiply the P/E ratio times the return on equity, the ratio of net income to book value of equity, the result will be the P/B ratio.'
Aims's associate likes to use the price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio because it appears to address the effect of growth on the P/E ratio. For example, if a firm's P/E ratio is 20 and its forecasted 5-year growth rate is 10%, the PEG ratio is 2.0. The associate likes to invest in firms that have an above-industry-average PEG ratio. The associate also says that he likes to invest in firms whose leading P/E is greater than its trailing P/E. Aims tells the associate that he would like to investigate these two investment criteria further.
Finally, Aims makes two comments to his associate about valuation ratios based on EBITDA and on dividends.
Comment 1: EBITDA is a pre-interest-expense figure, so I prefer a ratio of total equity value to EBITDA over a ratio of enterprise value to EBITDA .
Comment 2: Dividend yields are useful information because they are one component of total return. However, they can be an incomplete measure of return, as investors trade off future earnings growth to receive higher current dividends.
Is Aims correct in describing how we could transform a justified P/E ratio into a P/S ratio or a P/B ratio?

Options :

A : Yes.

B : No. He is correct about the P/S ratio but incorrect about the P/B ratio.

C : No. He is correct about the P/B ratio but incorrect about the P/S ratio.

Answer: A

Question 5

Mary Pierce, CFA, has just joined The James Group as a fixed income security analyst. Pierce has taken over for Katy Williams, who left The James Group to start her own investment firm. Pierce has been reviewing Williams's files, which include data on a number of securities that Williams had been reviewing.

The first file had information on several different asset-backed securities. A summary schedule that Williams had prepared is shown in Exhibit 1.

Exhibit 1: Summary Schedule

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The second file included the following schedule of information relating to a specific CMO thai Williams had been considering. Exhibit 2 reflects the results of a Monte Carlo simulation based on 15% volatility of interest rates. This security is stil! available, and Pierce needs to evaluate the investment merit of any or all of the listed tranches.

A third file contained notes Williams had laken at a seminar a couple of months ago on valuing various types of asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. These notes included the following comments that Pierce found interesting:

'Cash flow yield (CFY) is one method of valuing mortgage-backed securities. An advantage of the CFY is that it does not rely on any specific prepayment assumptions. An important weakness of CFY is the assumption that interim cash flows will be reinvested at the CFY. This is rarely true for mortgage-backed securities.'

'Cash flow duration is similar to effective duration, but its weakness is that it fails to fully account for changes in prepayment rates as cash flow yields change. Empirical duration suffers two disadvantages as a measure of interest rate exposure: reliance on theoretical formulas and reliance on historical pricing data that may not exist for many mortgage-backed securities.'

'The recent increase in the default rate for subprime adjustable rate mortgages can be traced to the structure of these loans. The negative amortization feature of these loans basically gave the borrower an at-the-money call option on their property. Once the property decreased in value, this call option was worthless, and the borrower had no incentive to make any additional payments.'

Pierce realizes that she will need to do a more in-depth analysis, but based only on the information in Williams's CMO table, she can conclude that:

Options :

A : there is no prepayment risk in the PAC A tranche.

B :

the high OAS of the PAC D tranche indicates it is most likely to be overvalued.

C : the Support S tranche is undervalued because its OAS is below that of both the PAC C and PAC D tranches.

Answer: A

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